Smoking disappears in the Benelux 2050
By 2050, there will be virtually no tobacco smokers anymore in Western Europe. That is a remarkable conclusion that the bank Citigroup advises its investors. Because it still takes almost 40 years, shareholders don't need to get rid of their shares in tobacco companies.
They come to this conclusion by looking at how many percentage of adult smokers are still smoking since the sixties. This number is decreasing annually.
It's also expected that the fight against tobacco will keep increasing which will also have its effects. Other reasons include an increasing awareness of the health risks, increased taxes and adapting packaging.
Different from country to country
In Australia Citigroup expects that smoking market is dead in 17 years. For Belgium and Netherlands, the tobacco industry has 40 years left.
Another trend in Germany and France. In France, smoking will become a rarity from 2118 and in Germany after 2280.
E-smoking is the future
Citigroup calculated the effects of decreased smoking to the tobacco industry. To survive in the future, they need to focus on poor countries in Africa and Asia. The tobacco companies have also to invest in electronic smoking as this will become the smoking of the future.
Until 2020, it is expected that earnings still rise in the Western world. The bank lowered its investors advice from 'buy' to 'hold'.